A Brief Note on Fed Communication
Some articles out today show an interesting dynamic at work regarding the Federal Reserve’s communication with markets. Simply put, by surprising the markets last month, the Fed persuaded them that...
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Faster Inflation Would Help…Really!
Very interesting piece in today’s NYT on how more inflation would actually be helpful right about now. That’s probably counter-intuitive to a lot of readers so let me elaborate. To be clear, none of...
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Inflation, the Fed, Jobs, and Growth
In a refreshing break from all the health care mishegoss, I keep running into people who want to talk about this idea that faster inflation would help the economy pull out of its growth slog. Since I...
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Adjusting the Taylor Rule for the Unemployment Rate Bias
In a post the other day about the Federal Reserve and inflation, I noted that a commonly used rule to gauge where the Fed should set the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) was pointing at around -2% right now....
View ArticleNew Evidence on Longer Term Costs of Econ Policy Neglect
Over at the NYT Economix blog, based on an important new paper by Federal Reserve economists. Be sure to look at all the panels in their figure 1.1 (I just used one for the NYT piece).
View ArticleJobs Report: Upside Surprise on Payrolls!
Payrolls were up 204,000 last month, well above expectations, and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.3%, due in part to the government shutdown, which lasted through the first half of the...
View ArticleNotes from Abroad: Why the Persistent Slog?
I write to you from the UK where I’ve been talking a lot about the policy responses to the global downturn, known in the US as the great recession. In a word, I’d say that many in the political,...
View ArticleBack in the USA!
So, let me get this straight. I leave the country for a week, and you still haven’t fixed the federal budget…or the health care website?! C’mon, people. Back from a great trip to London, still one of...
View ArticleThe Fed’s Finite
In listening to the Yellen confirmation hearing, I was left thinking that the Fed’s limits are somewhat under-appreciated these days. Over at the NYT blog.
View ArticleFlat Phil
Over at the NYT Economix blog…stop the presses: the Phillip’s curve has flattened! What it is and why it matters.
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Today’s Inflation Report and the Fed
Every time there’s an upside economic data point added to the picture—yesterday it was industrial production—somebody says, not unreasonably, “…and that’s why the Fed will start to taper sooner than...
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The Taper Has Arrived!
It’s taper-time, as the Fed just announced that starting next month they’ll be reducing their monthly bond purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion. A change of that magnitude would not show up in...
View ArticleBen Bernanke: Alchemist…Does More with Less!
Let’s start by stipulating the following: a) the Fed was going to begin tapering at some point soon, b) whatever it is that QE is doing, a little less of it would make an imperceptible difference (and,...
View ArticleCongrats, Janet Yellen!
She’s the new chairwomen of the Federal Reserve, confirmed by the Senate earlier today by a vote of 56 to 26. Like many other Fed watchers, I’ve long maintained that she’s an excellent choice for the...
View ArticleWill the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?
Obviously, the main problem with high unemployment right now is the joblessness for those looking for work and those who’ve given up for lack of opportunity, along with the absence of wage pressures...
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Why Was the Housing Bubble So Much More Damaging than the Dot.Com Bubble?
It’s a good question that someone asked me to speak to the other day, and here’s what I’ve got so far: –Not because it was bigger: according to established bubble-ologist Dean Baker, the 1990s dot.com...
View ArticleSamuelson Grades Bernanke but Omits Large Factor
–Bernanke needed fiscal tailwinds; got headwinds: Robert Samuelson gives Ben Bernanke middling grades for his tenure at the Fed as, according to RS, the Bernanke Fed tried to do a bunch of, you know,...
View ArticleHere’s a Question for Our New Fed Chair
As she testifies before Congress tomorrow for the first time in her new role. Over at the NYT Economix blog.
View ArticleJanet Yellen’s First Hearing as Fed Chair
[Trying to follow this in the background amidst much else to do...will update as needed.] And the key word is…”continuity.” Many of us said Yellen was the “continuity candidate” and she appears to be...
View ArticleAre Ever Larger Global Booms and Busts Really Inevitable?
I’ve been meaning to respond to this piece by Eduardo Porter from a few days ago on both recent and historical stirrings in global financial markets. I found it to be unduly depressing and defeatist....
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